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2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds: Surprising NASCAR at Sonoma picks, top predictions from proven model

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Sonoma Raceway for the first time in almost two years on Sunday. This will be the third of seven road courses races on the circuit this season. Sonoma is known for its unique layout that is multi-elevational and includes hills, many high-speed sections and 12 winding turns. Martin Truex Jr. has won the last two races at Sonoma, but he will have to rise from the No. 19 starting position in the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 when the green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET. Truex has a 132.5 average driver rating at Sonoma since 2017, which leads all active competitors, so it is no surprise the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds from William Hill Sportsbook list him at 3-1. 

He also has topped the field in laps led (146) and fastest laps run (56) during that span. Truex has also been a standout at other road courses, as he has a win and two second-place showings in his last three starts at Watkins Glen. Other top 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma contenders include favorite Chase Elliott (6-4), Kyle Busch (15-2) and Kyle Larson (8-1). Before scouring the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in six of the last 12 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. He was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed his lead has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick is still searching for his first win of the 2021 season, but he has finished in the top six in four of his past six starts and he has a win and a second place finish in his past three starts at Sonoma.

Dating back to 2017, Harvick has the second highest average driver rating at Sonoma of 120.6. He has an average finish of 3.0 during that span, which also leads the field, and he is second in average running position with a 7.0 mark. He is second in laps led with 59 and fastest laps run, with 49. Harvick also finished sixth at the Daytona Road Course in February. Harvick starts from the eighth position on the grid as he looks for the third road course win of his career. 

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 6-4, stumbles and doesn’t crack the top three. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup. The 2020 Cup Series Champion ranks fourth in standings this season thanks to a recent surge with five consecutive top-10 finishes.

However, he’s never been to victory lane in the Cup Series at Sonoma Raceway, let alone finished in the top three before. He’s raced it four times before and he has more finishes outside the top 20 (two) than he has inside the top five (one). This year, Elliott’s fourth-place ranking in the Cup Series standings may be an indicator that he’s been more lucky than good as he barely cracks the top 10 in laps led, ranking ninth in that category. 

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Save Mart 350 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in six of the last 12 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.’s win at Martinsville

2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds 

Chase Elliott 6-4
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Brad Keselowski 30-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Matt DiBenedetto 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Ben Rhodes 2500-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1 



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